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"The network crisis": videos on forecasting financial crises

posted on 25 July 2012

Financial crises are somehow similar to blackouts, pandemics, extinctions, earthquakes... there is something common to all these phenomena: their underlying networks.

Video: THE NETWORK CRISIS

This video is part of the dissemination effort of FOC (Forecasting Financial Crises), a European scientific project that uses the network-paradigm for understanding and forecasting systemic risk and global financial instabilities. The video is part of a series that include a set of interviews to scientists and another short documentary:

Video: FORECASTING FINANCIAL CRISES - THE DOCUMENTARY

A new short documentary and a new set of interview will follow next year.

The project and videos can be followed throught the project's webiste, blog, facebook, twitter, vimeo, and youtube.

Discussion

Perhaps of similar interest is Lawrence Berkeley National Lab's work on "The Flash Crash". Dr. David Leinweber, who heads the LBNL Centre for Innovative Financial Technology describes the work in one of a series of 4 recent articles on economic modeling at OECD Insights. http://oecdinsights.org/2012/06/28/what-can-nascar-teach-nasdaq-about-av... The author is Dr. David Leinweber.

The LBNL article raised the very interesting question as to modeling systems and the needs of the regulators vs. the market players and how one sets the level of regulation and who pays for it. Societal interests would seem to dictate a more conservative approach to stability, whereas traders want to have maximum flexibility with limited burdens of costs to pay for regulatory expense, a built in conflict.

(Disclaimer: I am not associated with the LBNL Centre for Innovative Financial Technology though I am a guest at LBNL (Microbial ecology) and the views expressed are my own, as is the article I wrote for the OECD Insight series)

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